With the resumption of the issuance of a new batch of game editions, does it mean that the spring of the game industry has come? A few days ago, according to the query of surging news reporters, among the first batch of 45 games with version numbers this year, at least 8 game distribution companies have abnormal operations such as team dissolution and business layoffs, with an abnormal proportion of about 17%.
A game company practitioner told surging news reporters that the resumption of edition number issuance may bring a positive trend to the game industry, but the industry still maintains a calm and wait-and-see attitude. The phenomenon of seizing talents with millions of annual salary in 2021 may be difficult to reproduce.
Earlier, on the evening of April 11, the State Press and Publication Administration officially announced the approval information of domestic online games in April: 45 games were approved. Among them, Baidu, gibbet, heart network, Panax notoginseng mutual entertainment, Youzu network, zhongqingbao, Lilith and chuangmengtiandi all have games listed. It has been nearly eight months since a batch of game version numbers were publicized in July last year.
The version number has become "hard currency", and the industry as a whole tends to be calm
For practitioners in the game industry, the jubilation was no less than that of the Chinese new year on the night of the resumption of the issuance of the version number.
On the day when the edition number was resumed, Huang Yimeng, CEO of Xinxin network, said in his circle of friends: "make dumplings tonight", while Gao liandun, President of Chuang Mengdi, shared a song "feeling good"; "The champagne is all open," said Chen Fang, CEO of Youzu Chen Jinhai, CEO of Junhai, said in a circle of friends at 5 a.m. "it's not easy. It's a project in three years."
Huang Yimeng, CEO of heart network
Gao liandun, President of chuangmengtiandi
Chen Fang, CEO of Youzu
Nevertheless, the boosting effect of edition number on the game industry is still obvious. From the perspective of market performance, on the second day after the resumption of the issuance of the version number, the whole game sector was red as a whole, and the market intuitively gave the response of the restart of the version number.
On April 12, game stocks such as glacier network (300533), Dasheng culture (600892) and Youzu network (002174) opened, and zhongqingbao (300052), gibbet (603444) and Panax notoginseng mutual Entertainment (002555) rose by more than 7%. But at the close of the day, the shares of the above-mentioned companies had begun to fall. Take Panax notoginseng mutual entertainment as an example. After rising rapidly at the opening, it quickly dived and turned green, once down more than 7%, and finally closed at 23.63 yuan, down 1.95%.
According to the reporter, at present, the industry still holds a wait-and-see attitude towards the resumption of the issuance of version numbers. Many practitioners said: "we still need to wait until the next edition number is approved and issued in order to have a clearer grasp of the current trend." Practitioners of a head enterprise in Shanghai told reporters that the issuance of the edition number has little impact on T1-T2 enterprises, because the original cash flow is relatively abundant, which mainly has a greater impact on small game enterprises and work, and will directly affect their revenue.
However, some game enterprises began to transform and adjust. According to the public telephone, surging news reporters tried to contact the registration and operation units of many games, including "magic eye chaos", "dream dog", "little city master", and were either told that they had "the wrong number" or could not connect the phone.
Insiders told surging news reporters that it is not uncommon for the team to adjust before the release of the version number is suspended. For example, the company may be optimistic about the prospect of the project when initiating R & D, and then start R & D and applying for version number, but the application process takes about half a year to a year, during which various emergencies may occur. "Even if the version number is issued, the game may have stopped research and development or abandoned commercialization. The suspension of the distribution of the version number only exacerbates this situation."
From the perspective of recruitment, the version number has become the "hard currency" for game companies to attract talents. On the second day after the version number was restored, a game company changed its recruitment notice on its home page, which highlighted that "the project under research has obtained the domestic version number."
"According to the tradition of previous years, gold, silver and four have always been the season of frequent talent flow in the game industry, but this year is completely different." Insiders told surging news reporters. Affected by the general layoffs of Internet enterprises this year, before the restart of the version number, large companies seek transformation, while small publicity seeks survival, the pace of expansion slows down, and the mobility of the talent market becomes worse.
Many industry insiders said that the resumption of edition number issuance may bring a new round of recruitment, but it is difficult to go back to the "people grabbing war" in 2021. "After experiencing this round of edition number suspension, most game companies are actually sober. The requirements for talent recruitment may be higher. After all, the current edition number is a scarce resource and can not be wasted. If you want to do a good job in the project, you must have better talents." Zhang Xiong, a game industry observer, introduced to surging journalists.
"When the tide of the whole game industry going to sea is relatively hot, most game manufacturers also pay attention to overseas, so such talents may become the meat and potatoes of the industry." Zhang Xiong thinks.
Previously, the person in charge of a game industry department disclosed to surging journalists that the talent mobility of the game industry is large, and there has been a "people grabbing war" around 2020, and many companies offer very high salaries to tap talents.
"In 2020, a company publicly said that it would recruit artists from all over the world with an annual salary of one million; the salary of TA, engine, art and other scarce posts in Shanghai game circle increased by 20% - 30%; a cutting-edge large factory did not hesitate to offer a 30W signing fee in order to recruit a Tencent planner; many HR recruiters were under the age of 30, but their annual salary was as high as 700000-800000."
According to the reporter's observation, the resumption and issuance of the first batch of version numbers has not had a significant impact on the game talent market. "The main reason is that the total amount of this batch of edition numbers is small. It can only be said that the situation has marginal improvement, but there is no reversal." An industry source said.
Securities companies pay attention to the recovery of valuation in the game industry
In June 2016, the former State Administration of press, publication, radio, film and television issued the notice on the management of mobile game publishing services (hereinafter referred to as the notice), proposing that unapproved mobile games should not be published and operated online. Since then, the edition number has ushered in a wave of explosive growth.
According to the statistics of surging journalists, the cumulative number of domestic and imported online game titles issued in 2017 was 9368, 2064 in 2018, and 1570 and 1405 in 2019-2020 respectively. In 2021, only 755 game edition numbers have been reviewed, and the number of edition numbers shows an obvious downward trend year by year.
Previously, the game version number also experienced a round of suspension: due to institutional reform, the version number was suspended for 9 months from March 2018 and resumed in December 2018. From the issuance of the notice to the first round of suspension of distribution, there was a peak in the number of game editions: according to statistics, the number of game editions distributed from July 2016 to March 2018 accounted for 68% of the total number of game editions reviewed in the past 11 years.
"The number of edition numbers during that period can be seen as wild growth. In the past two years, with the tightening of industrial policies, including the formulation of relevant norms, the total number of edition numbers has also reached the stage of gradual regulation and control." A brokerage analyst told surging news reporters. "For the whole industry, the restart of the edition number actually means a new round of competition. In the context of total amount control, if you want to apply for the scarce resource of edition number, taking the lead in getting the edition number can only improve the quality on the premise of considering the compliance of game content. In this context, it will also promote the healthy development of the whole game industry."
From the perspective of the attitude of the capital market, it still shows confidence in the game industry as a whole. According to the Research Report of China Merchants Securities, with the restart and release of the later version number, it is expected that the game sector will usher in the first round of rebound. Game going to sea, metauniverse and VR / AR games will become the core driving main line of the game sector this year.
China Merchants Securities believes that the overall order of the game industry is better than that before and after 2018, due to the chaotic version number order of the game industry and the lack of supervision of special categories such as chess and cards. And all game companies actively embrace regulation and implement regulatory requirements efficiently and strictly. Strong supervision can also realize the protection of high-quality game products.
Guojin securities analyzed in the research report that the valuation of game companies is currently at a historically low level, and pays attention to the recovery of the valuation center of high-quality game companies. For example, the valuation of game companies represented by Tencent is still at a low level. With the resumption and distribution of edition numbers and the continuous promotion of game going to sea, we can further layout the assets of high-quality game companies.
It is worth noting that, including the above two securities companies, a number of research reports have almost consistently expressed interest in the sea business. Lu Hongyan, one of the game companies that obtained the edition number this time, also stated at the performance meeting recently that at this stage, the company requires its theme to be released overseas for new project products.
"High quality going to sea is still the main line of investment, and we pay attention to the internationalization process of listed game companies. Under the background of traffic shortage and total amount control, the growth of domestic game market slows down, and large-scale and high-quality domestic games going to sea are more in line with the orientation of cultural output. At the same time, compared with platform going to sea, games as content products also face less overseas regulatory risks." Brokerage Research Report Analysis said.