For eight consecutive weeks, the market value has evaporated by one third. When will bitcoin continue to fall? On Friday, the three major US stock indexes hit a three-week high, the 10-year US bond yield approached a one month low, crude oil hit a two-month high, and gold rose for two weeks... While almost all assets rose sharply, bitcoin remained unmoved and steadfastly fell.
As the world's largest cryptocurrency, bitcoin has fallen for eight consecutive weeks, the first time since august2011. During this period, bitcoin has lost more than one third of its market value. As of Friday, bitcoin fell by 2.13% during the day, falling below US $29000 / piece again.
In the recent wave of selling, bitcoin has dropped nearly 60% from the record high of $69000 in November last year, and has been hovering between $280million and $300000 in recent weeks.
With the collapse of terrausd, the third largest stable currency in the world, the status of bitcoin as the first cryptocurrency has been consolidated. According to coingecko, the proportion of bitcoin in the market value of cryptocurrency rose to 44%, the highest level since last October.
However, the cryptocurrency market at this time is different. According to coinmarketcap data, the global cryptocurrency market value is about $1.2 trillion, which has evaporated 58% compared with the historical high of more than $2.9 trillion in November last year.
In addition to bitcoin, the popular token in the defi (decentralized Finance) project also fell sharply on Friday. The second largest cryptocurrency, ether and avalanche, fell by more than 4% and Solana fell by 5.7%. Even in the NFT (non homogenous token) market, the popular boring ape and cryptopunk are facing downward pressure.
Panic is the main factor for the continuous decline of cryptocurrency. As investors increased their bearish bets, the bearish sentiment towards the first bitcoin futures ETF in the United States approached the highest level since the fund was established in October 2021.
Matt Maley, chief market strategist of quantitative hedge fund Miller Tabak, said in a media interview that the market downturn "has greatly lost investors' confidence in cryptocurrencies". "So, as investors become more confident in the overall market, they are looking for other assets that they can buy when they are weak. They do not want to repeat the mistakes in cryptocurrency."
In addition, as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten policy, bitcoin may still have room to fall.
Scott minerd, Guggenheim's chief investment officer, said on Monday that bitcoin is expected to fall further, and $8000 may be the final bottom. In other words, bitcoin will continue to fall by more than 70% on the basis of the current US $28800.