Under the continuous high operation of the international oil price, the domestic oil price may usher in the "ten yuan" era. At 24:00 on June 14, the domestic refined oil will usher in the 11th round of adjustment this year. As of June 7, more than half of the 10 pricing working days in this round have been counted. At present, the crude oil change rate on the 5th day is 6.41%, and the oil price forecast is increased by about 305 yuan / ton. Converted into liters, it is currently estimated that the next round of oil price increase will be 0.23 yuan / liter to 0.26 yuan / liter. If the fuel tank of a household car is 50 liters, it will cost about 12 yuan more to fill a tank of oil.
In fact, before the adjustment on June 14, China has experienced 10 product oil price adjustments this year, showing a trend of "9 rises and 1 falls". Domestic gasoline and diesel have increased by 2330 yuan and 2245 yuan per ton respectively, which also means that a private car with a 50 liter fuel tank will spend 93 yuan more than at the beginning of the year to fill up a tank of oil.
Taking Beijing as a reference, before the adjustment on June 14, the market price of No. 92 gasoline was 9.01 yuan / liter, and that of No. 95 gasoline was 9.59 yuan / liter. The region with the highest oil price in China is still Hainan Province. Before this round of adjustment, the market prices of No. 92 and No. 95 gasoline were 10.12 yuan / L and 10.76 yuan / L respectively.
Photo source: photographed by reporter dongtianyi (data map)
Industry analysts believe that if the international oil price still does not show a sharp downward trend in the remaining domestic pricing cycle, the current round of domestic oil price will continue to rise at a high rate, which will also become the 10th rise in the year.
However, expectations for international oil prices are still rising. Jeremy weir, CEO of Trafigura, an international oil trading giant, said on June 7 that in the coming months, the oil price may reach $150 a barrel. By the end of the year, the market may begin to see demand destruction. Vail said that rising commodity prices may drag down economic activity and eventually cool demand.
Goldman Sachs also raised its crude oil price expectation again in a report released on June 6, saying that the structural shortage has not been solved so far, and raised its summer peak oil price target from $125 to $140. At the same time, Goldman Sachs also raised its oil price target for the rest of 2022 and 2022 by $10.
On June 6, Citibank released a report that it raised its forecast for Brent crude oil price in the second quarter by $14 to $113 / barrel, higher than the previous forecast of $99 / barrel. Citibank believes that after a period of high oil prices, with the relaxation of the supply side, prices will show a downward trend.
With the advent of the "ten yuan" era of oil prices, many netizens have also said that they can't afford to drive the oil truck and are ready to change the tram.
Source: Sina Weibo
In fact, the frequently rising oil price makes more and more voices count down the withdrawal of fuel vehicles from the market. Not long ago, Yu Chengdong, managing director of Huawei, CEO of terminal BG and CEO of smart car solution Bu, said publicly: "the era of pure fuel vehicles will end quickly. Buying fuel vehicles now is like buying functional machines in the era of smart phones." Li Bin, the founder of Weilai automobile, also said: "I don't understand at all. Why do people still buy oil cars now? Apart from smelling gasoline, what else is good about oil cars?"
Some people believe that although China has not yet released the timetable for the delisting of fuel vehicles, the trend of promoting the development of new energy vehicles has become more obvious. In terms of the promotion of carbon emission, the significant improvement of national standards for exhaust gas, and the restrictions on the transfer and inspection of old fuel vehicles, many policies have shown the intention to encourage the consumption of new energy vehicles.
On May 31, the Ministry of industry and information technology, in conjunction with the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas and the national energy administration, issued the notice on carrying out 2022 new energy vehicles to the countryside (hereinafter referred to as the notice), which made it clear that from May to December, the four departments will jointly organize a new round of new energy vehicles to the countryside in Shanxi, Jilin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Henan, Shandong, Hubei, Hunan, Hainan, Sichuan, Gansu and other places, Select third and fourth tier cities, counties and districts to hold a number of special sessions, tour exhibitions and enterprise activities.
Source: Official Website of the Ministry of industry and information technology
It is reported that a total of 26 automobile enterprises participated in the rural new energy automobile activities in 2022, with 70 models, an increase of 8 compared with 2021, and an increase of nearly 20 models. It is not difficult to see from the number of automobile enterprises and models participating in the activities that the enterprises participating in the new energy automobile going to the countryside activities in 2022 will have a stronger participation and richer models.
Prior to this, the opinions on financial support for carbon peak and carbon neutralization (hereinafter referred to as the opinions) officially issued by the Ministry of finance also proposed to vigorously support the development of new energy vehicles, improve the charging and replacing infrastructure support policies, and steadily promote the demonstration application of fuel cell vehicles.
Source: Official Website of the Ministry of Finance
However, as for whether the recent rise in oil prices will become a key node for new energy vehicles to completely replace traditional fuel vehicles, Fu Yuwu, honorary chairman of the Chinese society of automotive engineering, believes that although the recent rise in oil prices continues, the raw materials for power batteries of new energy vehicles are also rising. In recent years, with the global climate warming, low-carbon travel and green travel have become the main theme of people's travel. It is urgent to accelerate the realization of the "double carbon" goal. Although the world is accelerating the transformation and layout of electric vehicles, the rise in oil prices is not the fundamental reason for consumers to buy traditional fuel vehicles for the time being. For example, the current commercial vehicle market still relies on traditional fuel vehicles, and its complete replacement by new energy vehicles will involve issues such as energy diversification. Therefore, the rising oil price will not fundamentally replace the traditional fuel vehicles, but the traditional fuel vehicles may face the process of being gradually replaced.
Reporter: Li Shuo, dongtianyi