Scientists believe that as these changes manifest, the normally stable marine environment is becoming more unpredictable and capricious, a phenomenon similar to ocean memory loss in some ways. Ocean memory, that is, the persistence of ocean conditions, is the main source of predictability beyond the weather time scale in the climate system.
In the study, the team studied the sea surface temperature (SST) in the shallow surface of the ocean, known as the ocean upper mixed layer (MLD). Although the MLD is relatively shallow and extends only to a depth of about 50 meters from the ocean surface, this upper water shows great persistence in terms of thermal inertia, especially compared with the changes in the upper atmosphere. However, the modeling shows that this "memory" effect of the thermal inertia of the upper ocean will decrease globally in the rest of this century, and the temperature change is expected to increase sharply in the next few decades.
According to the researchers, the stranding effect in MLD will introduce a higher level of water mixing into the upper ocean, effectively thinning the upper ocean. This is expected to reduce the thermal inertia of the ocean and make the upper part of the ocean more vulnerable to random temperature anomalies. Researchers don't know what it would mean for some species to adapt better than others, but they don't know.
The decline in ocean memory is expected to make it more difficult for scientists to predict upcoming ocean dynamics and reduce the reliable time of various predictions. This will hinder our ability to predict monsoon, ocean heat wave (MHW) and extreme weather periods. As extreme weather is predicted to become more frequent in the future, our need for accurate prediction and measurement of such as ocean temperature, precipitation levels and atmospheric anomalies becomes more important, but if the ocean loses its memory, we may move in another direction.