Is the scene in the science fiction film coming true? According to the current viewpoint of the astronomical community, there are actually millions of habitable planets in the galaxy. The latest view of scientists is that there are at least four planets with evil alien civilizations. Once they have the ability, they may launch aggression against the earth, but now it seems that the probability is very low**
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The above ideas do not seem to be based on astronomical observations. Alberto Caballero, a scholar from the University of Vigo in Spain, said that he found the answer by analyzing human history.
Based on the statistics of countries that launched aggressive wars from 1915 to 2022, combined with military expenditure and the total number of countries, it is concluded that the "probability of human civilization invading extraterrestrial civilization" is 0.028%, and the probability of launching interstellar aggression is about 0.0014%.
After assuming that alien intelligent creatures and humans have similar brain structures, values and empathy, he further concluded that there may be about 15785 alien civilizations in the galaxy theoretically, of which only 0.22 are evil civilizations that may come into contact with humans. Taking into account the races that have not yet mastered the ability of interstellar navigation, this figure becomes 4.42.
However, the probability of being invaded by an alien civilization is only 1% of that of an asteroid impact, that is, once every 10billion years.