"Bad" report card. The European new energy vehicle market has handed in a relatively "bad" report card. According to the latest data from marklines and other market research institutions, in the eight European countries (namely Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Norway and Sweden), which account for nearly 90% of the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe, the registration of new energy vehicles in April was only 122000, down 39% month on month and 5% year-on-year.
Each market segment performed poorly. In April, the registration volume of new energy vehicles in Germany and France, the two largest markets of new energy vehicles in Europe, decreased by nearly 30% month on month. As the market with the highest penetration rate of new energy vehicles, Norway fell by more than 40% month on month.
Guo Fangjie, research director of UnionPay big data new energy vehicle industry and special overseas auto researcher of dolphin investment research, said in an interview with the first financial reporter that the auto industry has always been known for its high threshold and high elimination rate. At present, the biggest problem faced by new energy vehicle enterprises is the "capacity bottleneck". "This is not only an important reason for restricting the sales volume of European new energy market, but also the key to further improve the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the region in the future." He said.
Pressure at both ends of supply and demand
Guo Fangjie said that from the supply side, the main reason for the decline in sales of new energy vehicles in Europe still comes from Tesla's "Absence". "Although the Tesla Berlin plant was officially put into operation at the end of March, the production capacity has not been pulled up for the time being, and the supply of the European market still needs to rely on super factories in other countries. Due to the suspension of production of some Tesla plants recently, this affects the delivery to the European market to a certain extent." He said.
According to the data of JATO dynamics, the Market Research Institute, Tesla sold about 168000 vehicles in Europe in 2021, and its market share of pure electric vehicles in Europe reached 13.9%. Tesla's data showed that the company's car production in the first quarter of 2022 was 305000, which was the first quarter on quarter decline in production capacity since the outbreak.
At the recent investor conference call, kirkhorn, chief financial officer of Tesla, explained that the reason was the supply bottleneck caused by the shutdown of Tesla factory and upstream suppliers. In April, Bosch, a German supplier of auto parts and chips, also said that some factories had suspended production.
The problem of supply bottlenecks encountered by auto enterprises is not an isolated case. Recently, Volkswagen Group, which has the highest market share in the European new energy vehicle market, said that as of the 4th, the company's new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States had been sold out this year due to the shortage of semiconductors and wire harnesses.
On the demand side, the European new energy vehicle market is also under pressure. The reason is that the current prices of bulk commodities and new energy vehicles continue to rise, while the cost of living of European people is increasing and the real wage is still shrinking, which greatly affects the consumption motivation of European people, especially the working class.
According to Bernstein, a market research firm, the price of one of Tesla's best-selling models, the model y, rose 30% in the year to March. Tesla CEO musk said: "this is because the prices of upstream manufacturers are too high, and the asking prices of suppliers' parts are sometimes 20% to 30% higher than last year." According to the data of benchmark, a market research institution, in March, the average price of lithium carbonate was about $60000 / ton, up 20% year-on-year. Bosch also said that the increase in raw materials, chips, energy and logistics costs needs to be borne by customers.
According to Forbes, at present, the starting price of most new energy vehicles in Europe is about 30000 ~ 50000 euros. If you want to make the ordinary working class affordable, the price of new energy vehicles is about 10000 euros. According to the data of the European Central Bank, in the fourth quarter of last year, after the quarterly adjustment, the real wages of workers in Germany and Italy fell by 3%, and those in Spain and the Netherlands fell by more than 4%.
In Europe's largest car market, the German Federal Motor Vehicle Administration (KBA) data show that the country's private car sales in April fell by nearly 18% year-on-year.
Future development priorities of automobile enterprises
According to the calculation of securities firm CSC, as of April, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in eight European countries had reached 19.7%. Under the background that the European new energy vehicle market is slightly weak, can the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in this region be further improved?
Guo Fangjie believes that there is a great possibility of improvement. "From the perspective of policy, many European countries still promote more stringent carbon emission laws to restrict car enterprises. If they do not accelerate the transformation of electrification, car enterprises may face huge fines." He said.
The British government put forward another proposal in April: by 2028, more than half of all new cars sold in the UK must be all electric. By 2024, all electric vehicles need to account for nearly 22% of the market share.
In addition, the situation in Ukraine continues to be tense, and the EU is also considering an embargo on Russian oil. On the 4th, European Commission President von delaine put forward the sixth plan of sanctions against Russia to Member States, which plans to implement a comprehensive embargo on Russian oil in the next six to eight months. According to Eurostat, 26% of EU oil imports come from Russia. Earlier, the UK had said it would phase out Russian oil imports.
"In the coming period of time, whether the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Europe can be further improved depends on whether car enterprises can improve their production capacity as soon as possible." Guo Fangjie said, "the production mode of new energy vehicles is both complex and different from traditional fuel vehicles. Only enterprises that can continuously innovate in technology and organization, find efficient production modes and reduce production costs can stand out and occupy the leading power in the industry."
Musk has repeatedly said that Tesla's basic focus this year is to expand production rather than launch new models. "Tesla has postponed the production of new cars such as its cyber truck to next year, which will help us focus on existing models and expand our scale faster in the new factory." He said.
Musk also said that the rapid upgrading of Tesla's new plants in Berlin and Austin will enable the company to overcome bottlenecks. At the same time, the company is also seeking to expand the capacity of its plant in Fremont, California. "We are still investigating the new factory location and may announce the choice at the end of the year." He said.
However, upstream enterprises are cautious about whether they can increase production capacity. "The shortage of chips and other problems continue to exist, and the previously expected car sales of 88 million in 2022 is likely to be impossible to achieve." Bosch said recently.