Although many people are used to the earth centered view of the universe, we are not even in the key region of the Milky way A new paper recently published in the arXiv preprint shows that the four hostile civilizations are likely to lurk in our galaxy In addition, researchers believe that some of these civilizations may be technically similar to humans, but they do not yet have the ability to travel between stars.
The galactic center observed by the Chandra X-ray Observatory (from NASA)
The photos of the black hole in the center of the Milky Way Galaxy shared earlier have once again shocked many people's ideas. In fact, the earth is just a drop in the ocean among the Galactic planets.
Because of this, scientists have always wanted to know whether alien civilizations might exist somewhere in the Milky way.
Alberto Caballero, a doctoral student in conflict resolution at the University of Vigo in Spain, boldly predicted in his latest article that there are theoretically other civilizations in the galaxy, and at least four of them may be hostile to humans.
Screenshot (from: cambridge)
Although Caballero is not an expert in Astrophysics or astronomy, he has not found any evidence in space to confirm this theory.
But on the basis of studying the frequency of human invasion of another country, he still tried to determine the possibility of alien civilization invading another planet.
In this peer-reviewed article, Caballero first reviews the national war data from 1915 to 2022. It was found that 51 / 195 regions in the world initiated some type of invasion.
Figure 1: logarithmic distribution of national invasion probability (from: arXiv | pdf)
Then he made an in-depth analysis of the possibility of a country launching an invasion according to the percentage of global military spending. Add up the relevant figures and divide the total number of countries on the earth.
Finally, he explained in his paper that the possibility of alien civilization invading the earth is about 0.028%. On the other hand, it will take about 259 years for human beings to have the ability of interstellar travel.
At that time, if the invasion frequency continues to decrease, human beings will have a 0.0014% probability of invading alien civilization.
Figure 2: 1967-2019 comparison of international intrusion frequency (gray line) and energy consumption (green line).
Then Caballero published all the data collected so far in [mathematical seti] with the researchers in 2012( https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-642-27437-4_1 ) 》Combine the data from the magazine.
The paper pointed out that there are at least 15785 alien civilizations in the Milky way. Considering the possibility of invasion, Caballero believes that at least one "class I civilization" capable of interstellar travel is hostile to us.
If we take into account the civilizations that cannot carry out Star Trek, the hypothetical number will increase to more than 4.42 - they may invade the planet where another civilization, including the earth, is located.
Finally, although the above theory is still open to discussion, scientists joked that the probability of the earth being destroyed by an asteroid is likely to be much higher than the invasion of physical civilization.