Recently, a screenshot of the changes in the number of insured people of large Internet companies has been widely circulated. In the screenshot, the number of insured persons on June 1 last year and June 1 this year are compared, which shows that the number of insured persons of large factories has been greatly reduced, especially the number of insured persons of education and training giants has been sharply reduced by tens of thousands.
Netizens seem to have found a mystery, and have linked the reduction of insurance and layoffs. They believe that the decrease in the number of insured people represents the number of layoffs.
Regardless of whether the change in the number of insured persons in the screenshot is accurate, is it really scientific to use the change in the number of insured persons to correspond to the number of layoffs?
We might as well study it.
Of course, the financial report is more reliable based on the changes of personnel in large factories
In fact, there is no more accurate data about the changes in the number of employees in large factories than those in the financial statements.
However, when looking at the financial report, we should also pay attention to several issues. First, to accurately reflect the personnel changes over a period of time, the interval between financial reports needs to be as short as possible, so the comparison of quarterly reports is more valuable, that is, the link comparison.
Because the personnel flow of large Internet companies is very fast, both in and out. The shorter the time period, the more the personnel changes reflect whether there are layoffs or not.
However, it took a year for the screenshot to be transmitted online. I am curious why not use it for a month or half a year? Let's start here.
Sanyan finance found that Tencent, Alibaba, JD and Xiaomi all wrote the number of employees in their 2021 annual report and 2022 Q1 financial report.
Let's start with the conclusion. This seems to be different from what we expected As a matter of fact, the number of employees of major Internet companies is still on the rise
1. Tencent
According to the financial report, as of the end of March this year, Tencent had 116213 employees, up about 30% from 89228 in the same period last year. Compared with 112771 employees at the end of the fourth quarter last year, Tencent had a net increase of 3442 employees in Q1 this year.
2. Ali
According to the financial report, as of March 31, 2022, the number of employees of Alibaba group was 254941, a net decrease of 4375 compared with the previous financial quarter.
3. Jingdong
According to the financial report, as of December 31, 2021, the total number of JD employees was 385357. As of March 31, 2022, the total number of JD employees was about 390000, an increase of 4643 on a month on month basis.
4. Millet
According to the financial report, as of December 31, 2021, Xiaomi had 33427 employees. As of March 31, 2022, Xiaomi has 33793 employees, with a month on month increase of 366.
However, the data here is the change from December 31, 2021 to March 31, 2022, which is different from the screenshot from June 1, 2021 to June 1, 2022.
However, Sanyan finance and economics has noticed a figure, that is, the number of employees of Alibaba has decreased by 4375 in the three months at the beginning of this year, and the change in the number of insured in the screenshot is 4375 in one year.
Isn't it a bit of a coincidence.
In addition, let's look at the education and training industry.
For example, on June 1, New Oriental founder YuMinHong issued an internal letter. He said that fiscal year 2022 was the most difficult year for New Oriental since its establishment. During this period, the market value of the company decreased by 90% and the number of employees decreased from 110000 to 50000.
In addition, at its peak, tal had nearly 100000 employees. After the double reduction, tal began to lay off employees. According to media reports at that time, tal laid off 90000 employees in the second half of 2021, leaving only 10000.
It is understood that at the end of last year, tal held a farewell party internally. At that time, more than 20000 teachers of Tal left their jobs.
In the screenshot posted on the Internet, the number of insured people of New Oriental changed by just over 50000, and the farewell party for 20000 employees of Tal (XRS) at the end of last year was also a sensation. The number of insured people of New Oriental is reduced by 50000 and that of Tal is reduced by 20000, which seems to be supported by reliable evidence.
But don't forget that tal laid off 90000 people last year, and 20000 were just one wave at the end of the year.
Will you still believe the so-called table of changes in the number of insured people?
Is the number of layoffs feasible from the change of the number of insured people?
As the name suggests, the number of insured is the number of employees participating in social insurance, which is related to the number of employees
But the two cannot be completely equal
First of all, even large factories cannot guarantee that all employees are covered by social security. For a recent example, a few days ago, it was revealed that a large number of employees failed to pay social security.
There are also employees dispatched by a third party, and the company may not pay social security
In addition, some retirees do not need to pay social security, and financial, personnel, technical and other posts are often reemployed.
In addition, let's talk about the feasibility of querying the changes in the number of social security personnel.
The screenshot shows the change in the number of insured people from a third-party platform such as tianyancha.
But the actual operation is not so simple. You can draw the above conclusion by moving your finger
First of all, because large factories are collectivized, many companies are involved. On the one hand, it is unrealistic to check the number of insured persons of all companies one by one
Giants like Tencent and Alibaba have numerous companies under their control. If this problem is not solved, how to ensure the accuracy of data.
In addition, general enterprises submit the annual report of the previous year (generally as of December 31 at the end of last year) to the industrial and commercial department in the middle of this year, including social security information.
According to Sanyan financial query, the latest annual reports of companies under Internet giants are all in 2020, but those in 2021 have not been submitted, and those in 2022 will not be available until 2023
So the so-called comparison between the number of insured people in 21 years and 22 years in the screenshot is calculated out of thin air?
The feasibility of checking the number of social security personnel is basically 0. The author is curious about how the data in the screenshot is obtained.
From the coincidence of various data, the author believes that the number of social security changes in the screenshot is an intentional forgery.
It wants to create a false impression that all Internet companies are laid off. In order to be as realistic as possible, it selects some real numbers, such as the number of layoffs in Alibaba's financial report of 4375, New Oriental and tal.
However, many people believe the above data without verification, because some of them are indeed reported data.
As a matter of fact, we can't accurately count the total number of social security employees of Internet companies, let alone changes**
In fact, in April, the government also announced the changes of employees in major Internet companies, and the results were also quite different from the so-called wave of layoffs.
Internet Information Office interviewed 12 Internet companies
Nearly 80000 additional employees were employed
On April 8 this year, in view of the crazy news of layoffs on the Internet, the Internet Information Office interviewed 12 Internet companies, including Tencent, Alibaba and JD. Com. The results were unexpected.
According to statistics, from July 2021 to mid March 2022, 12 enterprises, including Tencent, Alibaba, bytechop, meituan, pinduoduo, Kwai, Baidu, JD, Netease, Weibo, BiliBili and ant group, had a total turnover of 216800, a total recruitment of 295900, and a net increase of 79100, of which 11 enterprises had more recruits than the number of departures.
In only one of the 12 companies, the number of recruits exceeds the number of departures, and the growth is still a general trend
Among them, meituan company reported that with the expansion of business, the company's business line and functional line personnel, such as store, home, online car hailing and cycling, have increased to a certain extent. Since July last year, 17000 employees have been added. This year, we will continue to promote the recruitment plan for fresh students.
It is understood that by the end of 2021, the number of employees of meituan had reached 100000, with more than 30000 new employees in one year on the basis of 69200 at the end of 2020.
At that time, Weibo said that according to the needs of business development, the company recently reduced and optimized the loss making business, expanded the scale of personnel related to content, and maintained the stability of personnel in other sectors. It is expected that the total number of employees this year will increase on the basis of last year.
Beijing bytehop said that in the second half of last year, the company abolished some business departments and optimized and adjusted some line posts. However, the company is also increasing the recruitment of personnel in other aspects. Since last year, the total number of employees has increased.
Baidu group said that at present, the company has made significant advantages in key technology fields such as autopilot, intelligent transportation, machinetranslation, and propeller deep learning framework, and the number of employees is generally stable.
A big reason why a big factory has become a big one is that it is large enough and has enough employees. For example, Tencent, meituan and JD have more than 100000 employees.
Therefore, their business adjustment generally involves a wide range of people and affects a large number of people. It seems like a round of layoffs to the outside world, but we should not ignore the large base of large factories. In the face of the huge base, this change will appear very small.
Of course, excluding the special situation of the education and training industry, we will find that the outside world is watching the wave of layoffs, and the number of employees is still growing steadily. It is obvious that employees in the Internet industry are getting younger. The new generation changes the old, and change is the biggest constant of the Internet.