The well-known analyst guomingpei looks down on consumer electronics demand, especially the Android camp mobile phone supply chain. Guomingpei once again warned that up to this year, mobile phone brand manufacturers in Chinese Mainland have cut orders for 270Million mobile phones. Among them, MediaTek has cut orders for 5g chips in the fourth quarter by 35%, Qualcomm 8 series has also been cut by 15%, and subsequent old models will be auctioned at a lower price.
The order adjustment between MediaTek and Qualcomm shows that the market demand may not improve next year. In other words, the revenue and profit forecast for the past three quarters will be further revised.
When investigating the supply chain at the end of March, guomingfu pointed out that the mobile phone brand factories in Chinese Mainland reduced orders by 20% to about 170million units. According to the new investigation, the mobile phone brand field in Chinese Mainland cut orders again by 100million units in the past two months. At present, it is estimated that the shipments of Xiaomi, oppo, vivo, voice transmission and glory are 160million units, 160million units, 115million units, 70million units and 55million units respectively.
Two of the major chip manufacturers, MediaTek and Qualcomm, also lowered 5g chip orders in the peak season in the second half of the year. MediaTek adjusted its orders by 30-35% in the fourth quarter for medium and low-end products. However, Qualcomm reduced the orders of high-end snapdragon 8 series by about 10-15%. At present, the shipment estimates of sm8475 and sm8550 remain unchanged. After the shipment of sm8550, the existing 8 series will be reduced by 30-40% to clear the inventory.
In other components, the shipments of camera modules (CCM) and lenses of Android branded mobile phones in Chinese Mainland may decline by 20-30% in the third quarter of this year. The total inventory of the top five CIS (CMOS image sensor) suppliers of Android brands in Chinese Mainland has exceeded 550million.
While the Android brand orders in Chinese Mainland were significantly adjusted, Samsung also lowered its mobile phone shipment target this year by about 10% to 275million units. Overall, apple iPhone The shipment momentum of is still better than Android.
Guomingyu believes that 5g chips and camera modules are key components of mobile phones. This year, mobile phone brands in Chinese Mainland cut orders, representing weak demand in Chinese Mainland, Europe and emerging markets. And because the lead time of 5g chips will be longer than that of ordinary parts and components, MediaTek and Qualcomm adjust their orders at the end of the year, indicating that the market demand may not improve next year. In other words, the revenue and profit forecast in the last three quarters will be further revised.