Malcom Penn, an analyst at future horizons, a market analysis agency, said that overcapacity, high inflation and industry recession will reverse the growth trend of the semiconductor market in 2023. It lowered its growth forecast for the semiconductor market from 10% to 6% in 2022 and - 23% in 2023.
According to eenews, Malcom Penn said, "due to the collapse of the chip market and the global economic downturn, the fuse of the 17th recession cycle of the industry is burning." Big chip buyers such as Bosch are already preparing for the economic slowdown.
He reiterated his view in January, "now inflation is a very, very big problem." "The only way to fight inflation is to raise interest rates, but the problem is that this does not solve the problem of the global supply chain. If inflation continues during this period, it is certain that it will trigger a global recession, which was not considered in January this year. This will begin to play a role when new capacity is added in the second half of this year, which will be a double blow."
The semiconductor industry increased from $440 billion in 2020 to $555 billion in 2021, an increase of 26%. Semi, an industry group, said the economic downturn would lead to a reduction in capital expenditure in 2023 and beyond, reducing the pressure on semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Semiconductor equipment manufacturers' sales rose 44% last year to a record $102 billion.
"A natural slowdown in the equipment market may be a good thing, otherwise it could worsen the capacity situation," Penn said "The capex data comes from semi, which I think is the real equipment being shipped, but the capex data in 2022 is exaggerated and may not reach."