IDC released a report that global smartphone shipments will decrease by 3.5% to 1.31 billion units in 2022, but will increase by 5% in 2023. IDC previously thought that smartphone shipments would increase by 1.6% in 2022, but now it has revised the data, indicating that the market situation is poor. Nevertheless, IDC believes that the market is only a short-term decline, and the five-year compound growth rate will still reach 1.9% until 2026.
Many OEMs have cut orders, even Apple IDC is no exception. However, IDC is optimistic about Apple and believes that it has stronger pressure resistance. Because Apple has strong control over the supply chain and high-end customers, it has stronger immunity to the macro economy.
In the second half of 2022, the semiconductor supply problem will be alleviated. The supply of 4G chips is still tight, but the market is shifting to 5g.
According to IDC, the 5g mobile phone business will grow by 25.5% in 2022, accounting for 53% of the new shipments, with a shipment of 700million units and an average selling price of $608. However, IDC's forecast has been much lower than before.
By 2026, 5g mobile phones will account for 78% of new shipments, and the average selling price will drop to $440. The average selling price of 4G mobile phones will be about $170 in 2022 and will drop to $113 in 2026. The average selling price of mobile phones is expected to be about $402 in 2022 and will drop to $366 in 2026.
The global smartphone shipment in the second quarter of this year is expected to be about 309million units, which is similar to that in the first quarter, but the possibility of downward adjustment is not ruled out.