In late May, a heat wave hit many countries in Europe. According to the French meteorological agency, may this year may be the hottest May in France since 1945. Since April 11, France has set a record of 37 consecutive weather temperatures above normal levels. Spain's National Meteorological Administration also said that some parts of the country are experiencing the hottest May in history. The temperature in some places exceeds 40 ° C. with the African air mass entering the Iberian Peninsula, the high temperature in Spain will continue in May.
The Copernicus climate change service, the EU climate monitoring agency, believes that this year, some parts of Europe will usher in a muggy and dry summer. From June to August, the temperature in Spain, France and Italy is 70% ~ 100% likely to be much higher than the average level. This will bring risks to the planting and harvest of crops in the region, and will also push up the demand for energy such as natural gas and electricity in the region.
Increased risk of agricultural production reduction
Agricultural production in Europe has been affected by high temperature weather. According to the latest data from France agrimer, a research institution affiliated to the French Ministry of agriculture and food, as of the 16th, the excellent and good rates of soft wheat, spring barley and winter barley produced in France were 73%, 69% and 71%, lower than 79%, 84% and 75% in the same period last year.
Wang Na, research director of agricultural products of Everbright futures, said in an interview with the first financial reporter that the growth of agricultural products is mainly affected by factors such as temperature, rainfall and sunshine. The reason why the excellent rate of the above agricultural products decreased is mainly because the temperature is too high and the rainfall is unfavorable, resulting in insufficient water supply in the growth stage.
The Copernicus climate change service reported that drought and heat are depleting soil moisture for French cultivation. At present, France, Spain and central European countries are more than 50% likely to have below normal rainfall. In addition, according to the data of M é t é o-franc, a weather monitoring organization, the rainfall in France from January 1 to May 9 this year was about 27% lower than that in the same period last year, the lowest in a decade.
Wang Na believes that the characteristic of agricultural products is that there are fixed seasonal cycles of sowing, growth and harvest every year. At present, it is an important period for crop growth. If you miss the key planting time, it may lead to protein reduction and affect the quality of agricultural products. "For the wheat to be harvested and planted in Europe, if it rains before June, the excellent rate of wheat is likely to improve." However, according to the specific data, the excellent growth rate of French barley has decreased significantly, and the drought has a great impact on it, making it more difficult to improve later.
She also said that in the context of the current tight supply of global agricultural products, especially wheat, the decline of wheat supply in France and other EU countries will further aggravate the tension in the market.
The latest supply and demand report of the US Department of agriculture (USDA) shows that the global wheat production in 2022 / 23 is expected to decrease by 4.5 million tons to 774.8 million tons. Specifically, in 2022 / 23, Ukraine's wheat production is expected to decrease by 11.5 million tons to 21.5 million tons, a decrease of 34.87%, driving exports to drop sharply by 47.37%, only 10 million tons. At the same time, other important wheat suppliers in the world, the United States and India, are also affected by the high temperature weather.
"Judging from the current global weather conditions, this wave of drought is expected to be mainly caused by La Nina weather, which may be difficult to alleviate in the short term." "If you want the global wheat supply to be alleviated in the future, you should still rely on the exports of Ukraine's Black Sea region and whether the U.S. wheat market can be alleviated," Wang said
Increase energy supply pressure
"The high temperature in Spain is not only reflected in the duration, but also in the intensity." "The high temperatures we are talking about in Spain in May were more than 10 ° C above average," said Francisco doblas Reyes, a climate scientist at icrea, a Spanish research institution
The Spanish government said that the hot weather in the country continued and did not ease even in the evening of the day.
Copernicus climate change service believes that summer in most parts of the northern hemisphere is a typical peak period of power consumption, and abnormal high temperatures occur in many European countries, which will increase the demand for air conditioning by enterprises and people, and then drive the demand for natural gas and electricity.
Dong Dandan, chief analyst of CSC futures energy, said in an interview with China business news that the current energy supply situation in Europe is not optimistic. "Although Europe said it would vigorously develop renewable energy such as photovoltaic and wind energy, it will take Europe a few years or even more to leave Russia's energy supply. Disturbed by the Ukrainian crisis, Russia and Europe use energy as a weapon to contain each other. On the one hand, this has affected the EU's traditional energy import, on the other hand, it has also lost Europe's more cost-effective right to use energy."
The EU announced that it would stop importing coal from Russia from August. So far, Russia has cut off natural gas supply to Poland, Bulgaria and Finland. According to the total European natural gas inventory (agsi +) data, as of May 21, the total European natural gas inventory was about 470 MWh, lower than the five-year average of 957.1 MWh from 2016 to 2020.
For countries with severe high temperature weather, although Spain has strong LNG regasification capacity, it is not closely connected with natural gas pipelines in other European countries, which means it is difficult to import natural gas from other countries.
France's power structure mainly depends on nuclear power, but since this year, EDF has cut its nuclear power production target three times. Recently, the company once again extended the shutdown and maintenance of nuclear power plants. According to the analysis, France's nuclear power export of 56 partners is expected to be lower than that of France this year.
In May, the average one-year forward power contract in Germany was 222 euros per megawatt hour, close to the highest monthly level in history, higher than the record of 207 euros per megawatt hour set in December last year.
"Inflation in many European countries has reached a record high, which has adversely affected the lives of enterprises and people. If energy prices rise again, the economy of the region will lose the possibility of greater growth." Dong Dandan said.