Since reaching a high of 692 yuan per share at the end of 2021, the share price of Ningde times has been falling all the way. On the first trading day after the May Day holiday, Ningde era fell sharply again As of press time, Ningde times shares fell 8.81%, 373.10 yuan per share, once as low as 353 yuan, almost halved compared with the highest point. Some investors joked at the stock bar: "ningwang fell into Ninggong."
"Ningde times doesn't care about the fluctuation of stock price and market share in the short term, and focuses on long-term technology research and development. And the market share of Ningde times is increasing, which shows that Ningde times has been recognized by customers and the market." Recently, Jiang Li, the Board Secretary of Ningde times, said in an interview with the media.
However, for investors holding Ningde era, they may not be able to "lift heavy as light". Can the Ningde era return to its former peak? Behind the sharp drop in share prices, has the fundamentals of Ningde era changed?
Net profit fell by more than 20% in the first quarter
Recently, Ningde times released its first quarterly report. The company's operating revenue in the first quarter was 48.678 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 153.97%; The net profit was 1.493 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.62%. The operating cost was 41.628 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 198.66%. In this regard, the first quarterly report explained that the rapid rise in the price of some upstream materials caused an increase in costs.
Zhang Xiang, a distinguished expert of China Expo think tank, told Zhongxin Jingwei that the time span for car enterprises to sign contracts with battery suppliers is as short as one month and as long as half a year. "In the first quarter of this year, the price of raw materials rose, resulting in the failure to raise the price in time in the contract signed earlier with auto enterprises, which will lead to the decline of profits."
Industry insiders Lei Cheng told Zhongxin Jingwei that the price of raw materials increased nearly tenfold from the original tens of thousands of yuan per ton, reaching a maximum of 500000 yuan per ton, which is a very exaggerated increase. For Ningde era, every penny earned from raw materials is deducted from profits.
According to the report of Southwest Securities, it is estimated that the unit profit of power lithium battery products in Ningde era in 2021 is about 0.08 yuan / wh. If the cost pressure is not transmitted, only the price of lithium carbonate will rise or devour all the profits of the company.
"In the face of the rise of raw materials, Ningde times has conducted friendly negotiations with major customers and dynamically adjusted the price, which will face the pressure from the supply chain together." Jiang Li said publicly in an interview.
For the follow-up trend of lithium carbonate price, Huaan securities research shows that at present, with the gradual release of lithium carbonate production, the relationship between market supply and demand has been alleviated; Downstream enterprises generally accept high priced lithium carbonate, and the market game will continue; Affected by the supply and demand pattern and sentiment, it is expected that the short-term price of lithium carbonate will stop rising and maintain stability. Insiders told Zhongxin Jingwei, "at present, lithium carbonate remains at a high level. It is impossible to fall this year. The price drop is expected to wait until 2023 and 2024."
In addition, Zhang Hong, Secretary General of the new energy vehicles branch of the China Automobile Circulation Association, pointed out to the China Singapore Jingwei that since this year, the prices of raw materials upstream of power batteries have generally risen, and the supply of power batteries is insufficient, which has directly delayed the delivery of electric vehicles, and some car enterprises are even unable to accept orders for the time being, resulting in a sharp decline in the demand for power batteries.
The sudden outbreak exacerbated the problem. Zhang Hong said that after entering the spring, the epidemic has occurred successively in Lingnan, Jilin and the Yangtze River Delta, which are upstream of the automobile industry chain. Many parts enterprises have stopped production, the production of many automobile enterprises has been affected, and the battery demand has further declined. He predicted that after June, the operating rate will gradually rise and the output will gradually increase.
Can you copy the bottom
From the perspective of the capital market, Lin Yuan, a private equity fund practitioner, believes that the reason why the share price of Ningde era is almost halved is that the previous market sentiment was too hot, and now it is just a normal cooling back. "The stock price should return to the value that can be created in Ningde era. The short-term stock price is only a voting machine, and the long-term performance is a weighing machine." Lin Yuan said.
Industry insiders believe that in terms of industry prosperity, the new energy vehicle industry is still unique, so public funds have poured into this track before.
"Some large public fund managers pursue relative returns and are afraid of falling behind the market, so they will join the so-called market main line." Some investors told Zhongxin Jingwei that in the process of pursuing the rise, more investors will be attracted to join, and capital will flow into specific popular tracks and stocks, which will increase the valuation of popular enterprises.
Tonghuashun Ifind data show that as of the end of the first quarter, Ningde era replaced Guizhou Maotai with the heavy positions of up to 1902 funds and became the individual stock held by the most funds. By the end of 2021, the number of public funds held by Ningde era was 1670.
However, with the increasing penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China, industry insiders believe that the gradually increasing penetration rate means that the growth multiple of new energy vehicles has slowed down from doubling year by year to five times in ten years. "The slowdown in growth means that the growth is weakened and the subsequent growth space becomes smaller." Lin Yuan said.
CITIC Securities recently released a report that in the short term, due to the sharp rise in the price of upstream raw materials and the lag in the price rise of downstream customers, the profitability of Ningde era is under pressure in stages. However, with the gradual implementation of the price rise of downstream customers and the accelerated layout of upstream resources, the profitability of the company is expected to gradually recover in the follow-up.
Southwest Securities pointed out that if the epidemic can not be alleviated in the short term, the travel demand of potential users of new energy vehicles will be reduced, and the downstream demand will be greatly affected in the whole quarter. So far, although the internal branches of the industry have announced their boycott attitude towards the price rise of lithium carbonate, the price change of lithium carbonate will still fluctuate with the downstream demand in the medium and short term, and the cost pressure and demand will shrink, or become the two "Dragons" that the company will take turns to challenge in the future. (Lei Cheng and Lin Yuan are pseudonyms at the request of the interviewee)