On the morning of May 9, Beijing time, it is reported that virtual reality headsets have been available for many years, and many teenagers have also bought such digital devices, but do they use headsets in a way similar to smart phones? So far, the answer is No.
Recently, Piper Sandler, an American securities company, released a report on virtual reality devices "spring 2022: assessing the youth market". According to the report, about a quarter (26%) of the teenagers surveyed said they had purchased virtual reality headsets, which was higher than many expected, but only 5% said they would often use headsets, and the utilization rate and interaction rate of devices were still relatively low.
At present, the utilization rate of VR devices is not high for many reasons. For example, for most consumers, the price of headset devices has not been reduced, and the application software is not rich enough.
However, content and software may not become a "stumbling block", because the concept of meta universe based on virtual reality is beginning to appear on the market, which may solve the problem of low device penetration. In terms of VR application software, the number is not enough at present, and there are no killer applications that attract users' attention.
Games
It is reported that the revenue scale of the global online game market has increased to $200 billion, with 3 billion game players worldwide. "Z era" (equivalent to China's post-95s and post-00s) and subsequent groups growing up in the digital world naturally entered the game market.
Microsoft, meta's technology rival, is currently eyeing the game market. The company has invested about $70 billion to acquire game developer Activision Blizzard, and the deal is under way.
Recently, a study of generation Z gamers conducted by Vice media group and advertising agency Razorfish found that one fifth of the entertainment and leisure spending of these groups will be used for various in-game consumption in the next five years.
If the perspective is transferred to virtual reality games, there are few at present. According to statistics, on steam, a popular game platform, only 3% of users are using virtual reality devices to play games.
Other contents
Concerts and sports also have great prospects for the application of virtual reality, but there is no real engine in these two markets.
In the field of education, virtual reality equipment can bring immersion teaching courses, so that students can carry out "virtual field visits" all over the world and explore the bright prospects brought by virtual reality. However, VR education has not been substantially started yet.
For the foreseeable future, the meta universe will certainly be the largest application field of virtual reality. Just like the science fiction film dreamland, people can invent and create in the meta universe and enjoy new beauty.
Gamble
There is no doubt that meta, the parent company of Facebook platform, is betting heavily on yuanuniverse. The company's current revenue mainly comes from online advertising of several social tools (such as Facebook platform, instagram and WhatsApp). In the latest quarter, advertising accounted for 97.5% of revenue. Obviously, meta hopes to diversify its revenue through metauniverse.
Last week, meta executives attended the "Milken Institute Global Conference" (known as the American version of Davos Forum). Nicola mendolsohn, a participant and the company's vice president of global business, told the press that at the conference, everyone was discussing the concept of the meta universe.
Meta's "Reality Laboratory" department is responsible for developing various products for metauniverse. According to the data, the revenue of this department is only $695 million. Reality lab is still a money burning department for meta to gamble on future opportunities.
According to the financial report, the Reality Laboratory Department lost $2.96 billion in the first quarter, an increase from $1.83 billion in the first quarter of last year. The management said that although the expenditure scale of the Department exceeded expectations, they will still be the Department with increased expenditure in the future. It is reported that so far, meta has invested US $10 billion to develop the concept of meta universe.
In meta's view, the investment of metauniverse into revenue growth and future profits will be a long journey. At the recent earnings analyst meeting, Zuckerberg, the head of the company, said that compared with the traditional software developed by the company in the past, the real laboratory will take longer to make profits.
Zuckerberg said that metauniverse will become the next important platform of meta, which is related to the company's mission and can also bring business and value similar to smart phones. The company is investing heavily. "Now I realize that building metauniverse is very expensive, which has never been developed in the past."
Some experts believe that through large-scale investment, the meta universe field will soon lead to major breakthroughs.
Sarah ostadabbas, a computer scholar at Northeastern University in the United States, said that in the field of virtual reality, mankind has made major innovations, so it is only one or two killer applications away from large-scale popularization.
OSTA said that the previous generation of virtual reality devices had too long delay and poor head positioning technology, which was almost useless, but the oculus product launched by meta had overcome major obstacles.
On Monday, meta will open its first virtual reality physical retail store, which will display VR technology, and consumers can also buy Quest 2 headgear. The company is also developing a high-end device with an internal code name of "Cambria plan", which is scheduled to be released later this year.
Breakthrough in design
It should be pointed out that in addition to the existing technological breakthroughs, industrial design is another growth space for virtual reality headgear, and Apple He is the king of this field (it is rumored that apple is also developing headwear devices).
David lasala, an expert at New York University, said there had been rumors in the industry over the years that Apple would launch a virtual reality or augmented reality headset device that would subvert the industry.
However, reisra said that among the active products in the virtual reality market, Quest 2 launched by meta is a clear leader. The second place may be valve index. Other notable headwear devices include lynx and Pico Neo, PImax, varji, HTC vive, and [windows] based( https://microsoft.pvxt.net/x9Vg1 ) Hybrid reality device of the system.
At present, meta is not a single VR hardware company, so many niche companies may be allowed to launch products with the most advanced technology in the market.
OSTA of Northeastern University said he thought meta wanted to develop the meta universe platform, the operating system. When meta and other social networks began to crowd out Google, Google was frightened and then began to enter the smartphone market to avoid marginalization. Similarly, meta recently found that smartphone manufacturers can impact their business models by changing one policy.
Recently, apple and Google's smartphone operating systems began to restrict targeted advertising, which cost meta a lot. The company's chief financial officer predicted that Apple's revision of its privacy policy would result in meta losing $10 billion in advertising revenue this year.
The hardware may be a pit
There are also risks for Internet companies to make hardware. For example, Google has developed augmented reality device "Google glasses" in the past, but the development is not smooth. At present, it only obtains limited applications in enterprises, industries and 3D TV fields.
At the earnings conference, Zuckerberg said that the best experience will be on virtual reality devices, and then on Augmented Reality platforms, especially meta's own quest platform. He also said that it will make it easy for users of other platforms to enter meta's metauniverse, "even without headgear."
No matter which company wins the battle of head gear (assuming consumers buy it), there is another problem in metauniverse, that is, what do users do in metauniverse? What is the real value?
In the eyes of some skeptics, the meta universe is a foam, just a new bottle of old wine, without any substantial new things. However, there is a noun that may refute doubt, that is "existential image".
OSTA said that if you compare the meta universe with the Internet, in addition to the sense of immersion, the most interesting difference is the existence of an image, that is, "your virtual image".
The scholar said that in the metauniverse, if users meet others in the image of a "Purple Octopus", it feels a little silly, but the existing image includes more than that.
OSTA believes that the Internet is a massive source of information, and netizens browse information without even leaving any mark. Unless you comment, Internet users are basically invisible. However, in the meta universe, everyone's virtual image means that consumer content also needs image, so exploration activities will become more active and interactive.
In addition to the virtual image, meta has another commitment to the meta universe: community. Although the emergence of social media has led to the devaluation of the term "community", in the meta universe, the community has a new idea. It is a free community without any geographical constraints of the real world.
OSTA said that in the real world, the creation and development of communities are actually limited, including children, schools or work colleagues. However, in the meta universe, people can rebuild the community experience, and human life has been improved through a broader sense of belonging.
Metacosmic core of meta
The core of meta metauniverse construction is a social platform called "Horizon worlds". Meta said that after the construction of infrastructure, the next step is to focus on the development of communities.
Lesra of New York University said that if ideal, the metauniverse will enable people to have a deeper understanding of themselves and continue to grow, heal, make art and learn.
Lesra said that it is conceivable that if half of the world's population meets and works in virtual reality without commuting, it can even alleviate the global climate warming crisis. However, so far, lesra has not studied the carbon emissions of servers, data centers, semiconductor production and other links compared with transportation.
According to meta, today's business model is actually a bridge to the future business model. At the earnings analyst meeting, Zuckerberg said that the metauniverse is a new way of computing and interpersonal connection.
He said that in the next few years, meta's financial goal is to obtain enough operating revenue from existing social tools to support the investment of the Reality Laboratory Department, while improving the profitability of the whole company.
Selfish money making tool
OSTA said that metauniverse may also become a selfish "money grabbing tool" to monitor users at a deeper level. For example, various augmented reality tools can build a social map of users and monitor interpersonal communication in an unprecedented way.
In the past, the purpose of user click advertising is to stimulate and expand the network revenue.
If this business model continues, metauniverse may become "Google or meta's own Internet", but users have their own virtual image through headset devices this time.
Zuckerberg told Wall Street analysts that with the launch of "Horizon world" on various platforms, some short-term business phenomena may be similar to today's app.
Recently, meta has been bombarded by some developers, who are accused of planning to charge high commissions for transactions of virtual assets.
Meng Desong, a senior executive of meta, stressed that the fundamental reason for the history of meta is the evolution of its success. "I have been in the company for nine years, and we have made many major transformations in the past." The executive referred to meta's shift from computers to smartphones and products such as "instagram story".
Meng Desong said that there are still several years before the concept of meta universe becomes a reality. Meta universe is a continuation of today's meta. For example, brands including "Wendy fast food" used to use meta's video and advertising products. Last month, they launched a virtual restaurant in "Horizon world".
Zuckerberg also mentioned: "the metauniverse is laying the foundation for the future. I will see an exciting 2030."