About 140 years ago, Thomas Edison began to generate electricity through two small coal-fired power stations, one in London (Holborn viaduct) and the other in New York City (Pearl Street Station). Although many people cannot live without electricity in their daily lives, not all regions can easily use electricity. Even in our lifetime, it is difficult to achieve global power.
In the IEEE Journal in June, 2022, an article entitled "electricity's slow rollout" was published The article indicates that the transformation of power infrastructure follows an S-shaped curve: the growth rate changes from slow to fast, and then returns to slow
This article proves this by observing some key developments in power generation and residential consumption in the United States, which have reliable statistics except for the first 20 years of the power age.
In 1902, the United States only generated 6 TWH, and the track of more than 100 years showed a clear S-curve. By 1912, the power generation capacity was 25 TWH, by 1930 it was 114 TWH, by 1940 it was 180 TWH, then doubled for three consecutive decades, and by 1970 it was increased to nearly 1600 TWH. During the boom period, the 1930s was the only decade in which the total power generation did not double, but it doubled in two decades after 1970. From 1990 to 2020, the power generation increased by only one third.
In this process, the rise in electricity consumption is first driven by the decline in prices, and then by the increase in the use of electricity. In 1970, the sharp decline in inflation adjusted electricity prices ended, and the power generation reached a stable level of about 4000 TWH per year in 2007.
The early expansion of power generation was destined to be used in industry - first of all, the conversion from steam engines to electric motors - and in commerce. Until after World War II, household electricity was restricted.
In 1900, less than 5% of households had access to electricity; The biggest jump in electrification occurred in the 1920s, when the proportion of connected dwellings rose from about 35% to 68%. By 1956, the proliferation had almost completed, reaching 98.8 percent.
However, there is no strong correlation between access and use: it accounted for less than 10% of the total power generation in 1930 and about 13% before World War II. In the 1880s, Edison bulb (low efficiency and low brightness) was the first widely used indoor power converter. In the next three decades, lighting is still the main use of household electricity.
It takes a long time for new appliances to make a difference, because there is a big gap between applying for a patent and introducing new appliances - including electric iron (1903), vacuum cleaner (1907), toaster (1909), electric stove (1912), refrigerator (1913) - and their extensive ownership. The popularity of radio was the fastest: by 1937, 75% of households had it.
It was not until the 1940s that refrigerators and stoves reached the same dominant share - dishwashers in 1975, color televisions in 1977 and microwave ovens in 1988. Similarly, as expected, these diffusions more or less follow an ordered S-curve.
By the late 1960s, with the increasing ownership of these power users and a series of other heavy power users, the share of residential consumption reached 25% and reached about 40% in 2020.
This share is much higher than 26% in Germany and about 15% in China. A new electricity market is opening up, but at a slow pace: so far, Americans have been reluctant to buy electric cars, and it is well known that they have long refused to build a high-speed electric train network, as all other rich countries are doing.