A company that makes auto parts has a price earnings ratio of 245 times. Let ordinary "leeks" feel "something's wrong" On May 11, it has been one month since investors won the lottery of "Xiami doesn't eat shrimp" by Jingwei Hengrun. He recalled his winning experience that day and was glad that he abandoned the purchase in time and recovered the loss of 10000 yuan
Core tips:
1. Jingwei Hengrun, as a "new energy vehicle concept stock" and "double high issuance", has a P / E ratio of 245 times, while the industry's average static P / E ratio is 40.82 times. This, however, made many ordinary investors feel "something wrong". The 400 million leek "prophet" predicted the outcome of "breaking the market" and "abandoning the purchase" one after another to avoid the loss of "new".
2. Insiders told fenghuang.com "storm eye" that the high issuance price and P / E ratio met with poor performance in the first quarter, combined with the overall pessimistic investment sentiment, which jointly created the "see you for a long time" scene of Jingwei Hengrun's listing break and nearly 400 million purchase abandonment quota. Mai Zeyuan, head of Guosheng Beijing investment consultant, believes that since 2022, the investment market heat under the superposition of various factors has decreased, and investors have become more calm and cautious.
3. Market analyst Zhang Junyi believes that the company's core technology needs to be improved in addition to the controller, ADAS and algorithm. Wang Xianbin, director of Gaishi Automobile Research Institute, pointed out that Jingwei Hengrun's business is not specific enough, and there will be a certain gap between the competitiveness of fist products and mainstream ADAS suppliers.
"Xiami doesn't eat shrimp" believed after consultation that the valuation of the stock is too high to afford to lose. Sure enough, he found that 395 million shareholders abandoned the purchase with him, with a rejection rate of 34. "Later, the listing performance was really shocking. The call auction limit fell, with the highest price of 111.98 and the lowest price of 93."
Facts have also proved that "playing new" is not a business that can make a steady profit without losing.
On April 19, Jingwei Hengrun officially landed on the science and Innovation Board of Shanghai Stock Exchange, with an issue price of 121 yuan / share, which broke at the opening. The share price was depressed all day, with the lowest price of only 93.01 yuan, a decrease of 23.13%. The closing decline narrowed, with a closing decline of 17.35%. The closing market value was 12 billion yuan, far lower than the market value of 30 billion yuan generally estimated by the industry.
As of the closing on May 11, Jingwei Hengrun closed at 99 yuan per share, with a total market value of only 118.5% Billion. The market value is far lower than the industry's previously generally estimated market value of 30 billion, shrinking by nearly 2 / 3.
Other successful investors told fenghuang.com that if they choose to sell at the lowest and closing position of the company's share price, they will lose 14000 yuan and 10500 yuan respectively.
Insiders told fenghuang.com that there are three reasons for the current situation of Jingwei Hengrun. First, the IPO price is too high and the P / E ratio is higher than the industry average; Second, the timing of listing is poor, and the recent capital avoidance rate is generally high; Third, the market performance of Jingwei Hengrun in the first quarter of 2022 was poor, and even suffered losses, shaking investor confidence.
The way to become the darling of capital
Jingwei Hengrun, founded in 2003, is mainly engaged in the R & D and production of electronic products, solution consulting services, R & D tool services and automatic driving operation and maintenance in specific scenes in the field of automobile (intelligent driving and vehicle Networking). It is one of the few enterprises in China that can cover intelligent driving electronic products, R & D services and solutions and high-level intelligent driving overall solutions.
The prospectus points out that according to the model test data of C-NCAP (China automobile evaluation), the core product ADAS of Jingwei Hengrun has reached the technical level of international well-known manufacturers, breaking the monopoly of foreign parts companies in this field. At present, it has been equipped with more than 10 models such as SAIC Roewe rx5 and FAW Hongqi H5 / H7.
From 2018 to 2020, the sales volume of Jingwei Hengrun ADAS products increased from 67500 sets to 306700 sets, and the sales volume reached 272300 sets in the first half of 2021. Accounting for 3.6% of the domestic passenger car ADAS market share in 2020, it is the only local enterprise among the top 10 domestic suppliers; The market share in the field of heavy truck ADAS exceeds 30%, ranking first in the market. Meanwhile, in the domestic car market, Jingwei Hengrun ADAS products account for 16.7%, ranking second in the market.
In addition, Jingwei Hengrun intelligent network products such as remote communication controller (T-box) have been equipped with FAW Hongqi HS5 / hs7, GAC EA s / V / LX and other models. From 2018 to 2020, the sales volume of this product increased from 56300 sets to 342400 sets, and reached 211100 sets in the first half of 2021, showing a rapid growth trend. In addition, body and comfort area electronics, chassis control electronics and other products have achieved varying degrees of growth.
From 2018 to 2020, the average annual compound growth rate of Jingwei Hengrun's operating revenue was about 26.92%. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 3.262 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.61%. From the perspective of business structure, the revenue scale of intelligent driving electronic products has developed rapidly, and its proportion in the main business revenue has rapidly increased from 4.45% in 2018 to 25.31% from January to June 2021.
As a well-known domestic automotive electronic system technology service provider, Jingwei Hengrun was a pastry in the field of intelligent driving. In the primary capital market, Jingwei Hengrun's industrial investors include FAW capital, SAIC Hengxu, Shangqi capital, GAC capital and BAIC industrial investment; Other institutional parties include Huaxing new economic fund, yongti Haihe, Huaye Tiancheng, CITIC Securities Investment, kailian capital, Yuexiu industry fund, GF Xinde, Yaotu capital, longmafeng venture capital and Beijing Daxing investment group, which are owned by the old shareholder Huaxing capital.
In addition, Jingwei Hengrun has many famous names - breaking the monopoly of foreign capital and the only local Chinese company among the top 10 suppliers of ADAS forward-looking system; Among Chinese independent brands, the loading volume of front view system is second only to Bosch; The market share of commercial vehicle ADAS exceeds one third; Customers of passenger cars and commercial vehicles cover FAW Hongqi, SAIC Maxus, FAW Pentium, SAIC Roewe, SAIC mingjue, Geely, Jiangling, JAC, FAW Jiefang, China heavy truck and Shaanxi heavy truck, etc.
Objectively speaking, Jingwei Hengrun is an enterprise with core technology. If it had not chosen the "double high" issue, its performance in the secondary market would be much better.
"Double high" issue
The so-called "double high" issuance refers to enterprises with high issuance price and P / E ratio.
Jingwei Hengrun's offering price is 121.00 yuan / share. It raised 3.63 billion yuan through this IPO, ranking fourth among the new shares listed on the science and innovation board during the year, second only to Huaqin technology, Aojie technology and Dongwei semi guide.
According to the prospectus and issuance announcement, the P / E ratios of Jingwei Hengrun in several different dimensions are as follows:
1. 183.65 times (earnings per share is calculated by dividing the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company after deducting non recurring profits and losses audited by an accounting firm in accordance with Chinese accounting standards in 2020 by the total share capital before the issuance);
2. 147.77 times (earnings per share is calculated by dividing the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company before deducting non recurring profits and losses audited by an accounting firm in accordance with Chinese accounting standards in 2020 by the total share capital before this issuance);
3. 244.87 times (earnings per share is calculated by dividing the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company after deducting non recurring profits and losses audited by an accounting firm in accordance with Chinese accounting standards in 2020 by the total share capital after this issuance);
4. 197.03 times (earnings per share is calculated by dividing the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company before deducting non recurring profits and losses audited by an accounting firm in 2020 in accordance with Chinese accounting standards by the total share capital after this issuance).
In other words, according to the P / E ratio of Jingwei Hengrun, the lowest is 147.77 times and the highest is 245 times.
According to the industry classification guidelines for listed companies (revised in 2012) issued by the CSRC, the industry of the company is "C39 computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry". As of March 31, 2022 (T-3), the average monthly static P / E ratio of the industry released by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. was 40.82 times, but the P / E ratio of Jingwei Hengrun was much higher than this, which foreshadowed the sharp decline of Jingwei Hengrun on the day of IPO.
In this regard, maizeyuan, head of Guosheng Beijing investment consultant, pointed out that "if in 2021, the market may recognize this price because the financing environment was good at that time. However, from 2022, the investment market heat under the superposition of various factors has decreased, and investors have become more calm and cautious."
The greater blow to investors is the large-scale abandonment of Jingwei Hengrun on the eve of its listing.
Performance pressure behind abandonment
On April 12, Jingwei Hengrun announced the issuance results, in which the number of online investors giving up subscription was 3.2609 million shares and the amount of giving up subscription was 395 million yuan. Based on the issuance of 30 million shares, the abandonment rate of Jingwei Hengrun was 10.87%, setting a new record of new shares on the Kechuang board.
Jingwei Hengrun said that all the shares abandoned by online investors were underwritten by the joint lead underwriters. The underwriting amount of the joint lead underwriters was 395 million yuan. The proportion of the number of underwritten shares in the number of shares issued this time after deducting the final strategic placement was 13.2164%, and the proportion of the number of underwritten shares in the total scale of this issuance was 10.8698%.
Coincidentally, on April 14, tuojing technology, an enterprise on the science and innovation board, announced the issuance results. The number of shares abandoned by online investors was 1536300, and the amount abandoned was 110 million yuan; Before Jingwei Hengrun, Tengyuan cobalt industry had the largest amount of online abandonment during the year, with an amount of about 101 million yuan.
However, the 10.87% abandonment ratio of Jingwei Hengrun is much higher than that of other enterprises. Before that, the most recent abandonment ratio higher than that of Jingwei Hengrun was China Communications Construction, with a abandonment ratio of 11.0473%. However, China Communications Construction was issued and listed in March 2012, which has been a full 10 years since now.
In fact, in addition to the three companies mentioned above, the new shares abandoned during the year were Weijie Chuangxin, Sanyuan biology, Shouyao holding, softcom power, anda intelligence, Puyuan Jingdian, Huaqin technology, Dongwei semiconductors, Han Zu CNC, etc. among them, the abandoned purchase amount of five shares such as Weijie Chuangxin, Sanyuan biology, Puyuan Jingdian, Huaqin technology and Dongwei semiconductors was more than 50 million yuan. The fundamental reason is that with the increase of the number of new shares issued and the acceleration of the frequency, new shares are no longer scarce, which reduces the enthusiasm of investors to "fight for new shares".
Of course, the general environmental factors have also contributed to the more frequent abandonment of purchases. Especially since March, with the Fed raising interest rates, the Ukrainian Russian war and the repeated domestic epidemic, the major indexes have accelerated their decline. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai stock index has fallen by 12.44%, including 7.96% since March, 25.76% on the gem, 14.38% since March, 30.99% and 22.79% since March.
The continuous decline of the market has amplified investors' pessimism about the return expectation of IPO, and also made the amount of IPO abandonment rising.
In addition, the earnings in the first quarter of 2022 announced in Jingwei Hengrun's prospectus and listing announcement also prompted some investors to re-examine the operating level of Jingwei Hengrun. According to the data, the operation of Jingwei Hengrun in the first quarter of this year was not bright.
The turning point has come, and the test has intensified
In 2021, Jingwei Hengrun realized an operating revenue of 3262.364 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.61%; The net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was 146.1873 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.37%; After deducting non recurring profits and losses, the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was 111.3785 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 87.83%.
At the same time, according to preliminary calculation, from January to March 2022, Jingwei Hengrun expects the company's operating revenue to be 660 million yuan to 720 million yuan, with a year-on-year change ratio of - 9.41% to - 1.18%; The net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company is expected to be - 40 million yuan to - 20 million yuan, with a year-on-year change ratio of - 223.74% to - 161.87%; It is expected that the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company after deducting non recurring profits and losses will be - 80 million yuan to - 60 million yuan, with the largest decline, reaching 290.28% ~ 353.71%.
In this regard, Jingwei Hengrun said that the main reason for the decline in performance is that the sales volume of the downstream commercial vehicle industry decreased in the same period. Second, the growth of personnel scale has led to a significant increase in R & D expenses - by the end of 2021, the total number of employees of Jingwei Hengrun had reached 3570, an increase of 836 compared with 2734 at the end of 2020, an increase of 30.58%, including a total increase of 669 R & D personnel and technical personnel, accounting for more than 80% of the new number; In addition, the R & D expenses in the first quarter of 2022 are expected to be about 145 million yuan to 165 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 63.07% to 85.56%, which has a great adverse impact on the net profit of this quarter.
In addition, the influencing factors also include that the production and operation are affected by the COVID-19 and the production and operation are affected by the shortage of vehicle specification chips, especially the latter. Since last year, the global shortage of vehicle specification chips has continued, resulting in a decline in the vehicle production of Jingwei Hengrun customers, which has also affected the delivery of some of their products.
In addition, Jingwei Hengrun also mentioned that the risk points of the company also include the high inventory balance and rapid scale growth - at the end of each reporting period, the book value of the company's inventory was 573445900 yuan, 674856500 yuan, 88264300 yuan and 1309421500 yuan respectively, accounting for 30.70%, 25.42%, 22.62% and 30.31% of the total assets respectively. There is pressure on the inventory balance to continue to grow and possibly depreciate.
In fact, for Jingwei Hengrun, with the decline of commercial vehicle sales, short-term performance pressure is inevitable. The real challenge is that at this stage, the market competition of its main product - L2 automatic driving overall solution is becoming more and more fierce. Whether it can effectively expand from the middle-end independent brand to higher-end customers is the real test that Jingwei Hengrun will face. After all, at this stage, Jingwei Hengrun's customers are relatively concentrated. If the manufacturer reduces the cost every year, its profits will inevitably be diluted.
For the development prospect of Jingwei Hengrun, Zhang Junyi, a market analyst, said: "(Jingwei Hengrun) is a technology service provider. Relatively speaking, its core technology needs to be improved in terms of ADAS and algorithms in addition to controllers. In addition, now all car enterprises in the market have their own intelligence and networking capabilities, and many emerging enterprises are also developing rapidly, so it is still a big challenge for such an independent company."
Wang Xianbin, director of Gaishi Automobile Research Institute, pointed out that Jingwei Hengrun's business is not single-minded. "This company's automotive electronic product line is too wide and the coverage is too complete. In fact, the competitiveness of its fist products will fall behind that of mainstream ADAS suppliers. They prefer hardware research and development."
These problems require Jingwei Hengrun to constantly revise the industry's cognition and view of itself through real performance.