In the past few years, the "ningwang" with smooth wind and water has entered a relatively difficult period. On May 5, the first trading day after the May Day holiday, Ningde times opened 10% lower than expected and quickly boarded the hot search. As of the close of the day, Ningde times shares fell 8.15% to 376 yuan / share, with a total market value of 876.4 billion yuan. The turnover on that day exceeded 22 billion yuan, a new high since the listing.
Compared with the high point on December 3 last year (692 yuan / share), the share price of Ningde times has fallen by 45%, and the market value has "evaporated" more than 730 billion yuan.
In response to the sharp decline in the stock price, Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Ningde era, said at the performance briefing that as a fast-growing high-tech enterprise, the compound annual growth rates of revenue and net profit of Ningde era from 2015 to 2021 were 56% and 52% respectively. The valuation should refer to the early level of world-class high-tech enterprises.
He also said that as an enterprise with a global market share of 35%, the first technology in the industry and deep trust from customers at home and abroad, Ningde era has great growth potential in the face of more than 10 times the market space in the future. In addition to R & D, design, production, manufacturing and sales, Ningde era also increases technology licensing, service brand and service value (such as evogo, heavy truck replacement, etc.).
Revenue of Ningde times in the first quarter of 2022 | financial report of Ningde times
The recent stock price fluctuations of Ningde era are related to its first quarterly report of "increasing income without increasing profit". In the first quarter of this year, the revenue of Ningde times was 48.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 153.97%; The net profit was 1.493 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.62%. Especially in terms of gross profit margin, it was only 14.48% in the first quarter, significantly lower than 26.3% in 2021; The net interest rate is 4.06%, which is also lower than 13.7% in 2021.
On the surface, the recent performance fluctuation of Ningde era is mainly related to the price fluctuation of upstream raw materials. But the more worthy question is: the epidemic situation, inflation and other macro factors have brought long-term changes to the global industrial chain. Is the logic that once supported the overestimation of "ningwang" still applicable today?
*01 "test" of soaring raw materials * on the reason for "increasing income without increasing profit" in the first quarter, Ningde Times said that in order to maintain the healthy and benign development of new energy vehicles and power battery industry, they bear the main pressure of rising raw material prices, which is the main reason for the decline of gross profit margin month on month. This is influenced by short-term fluctuation factors. With the expansion of upstream production capacity, the price of raw materials will gradually return to a reasonable level.
Geek park has previously reported several times that the recent rise of lithium carbonate, the main material of power battery, far exceeded market expectations According to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on May 5, the spot price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate was 461500 yuan / ton. At the beginning of 2021, the price of lithium carbonate was only about 50000 yuan / ton, and the highest price was more than 500000 yuan / ton.
This is also directly reflected in operating costs. According to the financial report, the operating cost of Ningde era in the first quarter was 41.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 199%, far exceeding the increase of operating revenue (154%).
In fact, the sharp rise in the price of raw materials in the upstream has given the Ningde era in the middle reaches a multiple-choice question: do you bear the rising costs yourself or transmit them to the downstream host manufacturers? From the situation in the first quarter, Ningde era is relatively cautious in transmitting to the downstream, and it has borne a large part of the rise of raw materials.
In fact, it is not only the Ningde era, but also the whole power battery industry. Domestically, in the first quarter, the revenue of GuoXuan high tech and Yiwei lithium energy increased by 203.14% and 127.69% year-on-year, but the net profit decreased by 32.79% and 19.43%; Xinwangda's revenue in the first quarter was 10.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.1%; The profit was 94.92 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.13%, and the sales gross profit margin was 13.45%.
Internationally, LG new energy, the old rival of Ningde era, had a revenue of 4.34 trillion won (about 22.48 billion yuan) in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%; Operating profit fell 24.1% year-on-year to 258.9 billion won (about 1.34 billion yuan).
Behind this, it is more related to further seizing market share. According to the data, in the first quarter of 2022, the installed capacity of power batteries in China was 46.87gwh, with Ningde times accounting for more than 50%, continuing to rank first in the industry. At the same time, the global market share of Ningde era has also increased from 32.6% at the end of 2021 to 35% at present, further opening the competitive gap.
However, it seems that the Ningde era can not bear for too long. Southwest Securities Research Report believes that the unit profit of power lithium battery products in Ningde era in 2021 is about 0.08 yuan / wh (watt hour). If the cost pressure is not transmitted, "only the price of lithium carbonate will rise or devour all the profits of the company".
It is understood that Ningde times has begun to negotiate price increases with customers to cope with the cost pressure of the supply chain. "We have a certain process of friendly price negotiation with customers. Different customers have different situations and application scenarios, so it's not easy to generalize. Generally speaking, the price adjustment through negotiation with customers has been basically completed and will be implemented gradually in the second quarter."
At the same time, Ningde times also said, "based on the current supply chain and upstream situation, customers understand our price increase this time, because the situation of each customer is different, and it is impossible to tell the specific price increase proportion. On the whole, the profitability of the company will be reasonably repaired, and the specific results depend on the landing situation."
For this round of price rise, the downstream main engine factory may be more helpless. Previously, Li Xiang, CEO of ideal automobile, wrote through social media that the increase in battery costs in the second quarter of this year was "very outrageous". At present, the brands that have contracted with battery manufacturers to determine the price increase range of batteries in the second quarter have basically announced the price increase immediately. Li Xiang also said that most of the brands that have not yet increased their prices have not been negotiated, and they will generally increase their prices immediately after negotiation.
02 "revaluation" of Ningde era Since its listing in 2018, in less than three years, Ningde era's stock price has increased more than ten times from the initial market value of less than 50 billion yuan to today's 876.4 billion yuan, reaching 26 times at the highest Supporting the high valuation of Ningde era is the explosive growth of its revenue and performance on the one hand, and its strong position in the industrial chain on the other hand
After the performance decline in the first quarter of this year, whether Ningde era can recover quickly depends largely on the transmission of rising prices and the trend of raw materials. At present, the negotiated price adjustment between Ningde times and customers in the second quarter has been basically completed, and the price of raw materials has begun to fall slightly, but whether the performance can return to the previous level remains to be seen.
It is understood that in the past two years, driven by profits, upstream enterprises have begun to layout a large number of new production capacity. The Research Report of China Merchants Bank Research Institute predicts that in the short term, in 2022, lithium salt will be in short supply and the price will remain high under strong demand; From 2023 to 2025, with the rapid release of production capacity, supply will exceed demand, and prices will fall periodically.
In addition to the imbalance between supply and demand, the sharp rise in the price of battery raw materials is also closely related to man-made speculation. Li Bin, CEO of Weilai automobile, once said, "we have made in-depth research on all links in the upstream and believe that there are more speculative factors for the current price rise of lithium carbonate, and there is not such a big gap between supply and demand."
Recently, the regulatory authorities are also coordinating the price mechanism to crack down on malicious speculation and stabilize the market price of raw materials. Ma Xiaoli, Deputy Secretary General of China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, said, "the Ministry of industry and information technology, the national development and Reform Commission, the association, including some other institutions, have done a lot of work in varying degrees for the rise of material prices. After one month's efforts in March, the price of lithium carbonate has basically been stable."
However, the deeper impact of the increase in revenue rather than profit in the first quarter of Ningde era is that people begin to rethink the valuation of Ningde era, how much bargaining power it has for upstream resource manufacturers and downstream host manufacturers, and whether it is as strong as expected.
Generally speaking, from the company's accounts receivable and payables, we can observe its voice in the industrial chain. In recent years, the receivables of Ningde times have not increased with the expansion of business scale, which indicates that downstream customers do not seriously occupy the funds of Ningde times. According to the financial report, from 2020 to 2021, the notes receivable and accounts receivable of Ningde times were 21.2 billion yuan and 25.2 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, lower than the increase of its revenue (164%).
On the contrary, Ningde times occupies relatively serious funds for upstream suppliers, and the amount of accounts payable increases with the growth of business scale. It is understood that from 2019 to 2020, the notes payable and accounts payable of Ningde era were 28.1 billion yuan, 31.2 billion yuan and 107.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11% and 244%.
In the first quarter of 2021, Ningde era still performed well. Notes payable and accounts payable amounted to 147.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 259%. Including 83.59 billion yuan of notes payable and 64.33 billion yuan of accounts payable; Notes and accounts receivable were 26.66 billion, a year-on-year increase of only 22.8%.
However, the performance of gross profit margin is like a "seed" of doubt, which makes people have some cracks in their belief in "King Ning" Even if Ningde era occupies 50% of the domestic market share, cooperative car enterprises, including Tesla, Hyundai, Ford, Daimler, great wall, ideal, velai and other mainstream main engine manufacturers, have a market share of 35% in the global market. In the face of the cost increase caused by the price rise of raw materials, they can not be immediately transmitted to the downstream vehicle manufacturers.
For the future, Ningde era is still optimistic, "the industry competition is not only about a single product or technology, but a competition of comprehensive strength. The company's supply chain system is more complete, and the manufacturing system and technology R & D strength are stronger. With the mass production of new products with high cost performance, the advantage gap compared with second-line manufacturers is still increasing."