According to foreign media reports, a new report from Colorado research company e source shows that due to the shortage of key raw materials for electric vehicle batteries, the cost of producing electric vehicles will soar in the next four years. "The wave of battery demand is coming," said Sam Jaffe, vice president of battery solutions at e source. "But I don't think the battery industry is ready yet."
In recent years, with the increase of global electric vehicle battery production, the price of battery has decreased. According to e source's estimation, the average price of battery is 128 US dollars / kWh at present, which may drop to about 110 US dollars / kWh next year. But the decline in average battery prices will not last long. E source estimates that battery prices will soar by 22% between 2023 and 2026, reaching a maximum of $138 / kWh, and then return to a stable downward trend in 2031, possibly as low as $90 / kWh.
Jaffe said that because the demand for key battery raw materials such as lithium has increased significantly, we expect battery prices to soar. "There is a real shortage of lithium now, and the shortage of lithium will be more serious. If lithium is not mined, batteries cannot be produced." E source predicts that the surge in battery costs may push up the price of each electric vehicle sold in 2026 by $1500 to $3000. The company also lowered its electric vehicle sales forecast for 2026 by 5% to 10%.
According to the latest forecast of another automobile market consulting company, the annual sales volume of electric vehicles in the United States is expected to exceed 2 million. As more and more Americans accept electric vehicles, carmakers are expected to launch more new electric models.
Although industry executives and government leaders agree that more needs to be done to obtain raw materials, e source says the number of mining projects is still surprisingly small. "With the price of lithium rising by nearly 900% in the past 18 months, we thought the capital market would open the 'gate' and establish dozens of new lithium projects. On the contrary, the investment in mining projects is very small, and most of them come from China," e source wrote in a report