Tibco Consulting (JW Insights) reports that global laptop shipments in 2019 will be 173 million units, up 5.5% year-on-year; in 2020, as the epidemic spreads globally, home office and online learning become the norm, and demand for laptops further recovers. 2020 global laptop sales will be 222 million units, up 28.3% year-on-year. In 2021, as the epidemic escalates and the mining wave rises, the demand for notebook computer market will be further released, continuing to push up the global notebook computer market sales.
- Analysis by JW Insights (JW Insights)*
- The laptop market has continued to grow in recent years, reaching a record 262 million units in 2021. But with the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2022, coupled with high inventories, logistics, and inflation, the laptop market could take a sharp turn for the worse, dropping to 248 million units, a 5.3% year-over-year decline.
- The laptop market is a stock market, dominated by replacement demand, and was not originally of much interest to the market, but it has grown significantly over the last three years and has become a new focus for the industry.
Global laptop shipments grow 18% year-over-year in 2021, again reaching a record 262 million units.
Good market performance in 2021 has increased the confidence of laptop manufacturers, who were optimistic about the market in 2022 in the fourth quarter of last year. Prior to the Russia-Ukraine war, in addition to Apple, Acer, Asus, HP, Lenovo, Dell and other major brand manufacturers believe that demand in the laptop market will remain strong in 2022, all raising their 2022 laptop shipment plans, which are expected to be as high as 280 million units.
But the Russian-Ukrainian crisis has shattered their original ideal expectations. According to Omida data report, the Russian laptop market is 7 million units in 2021, and most PC brands have stopped shipping to Russia due to the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, with the main reasons for the halt being payment problems, logistical issues, humanitarian and US sanctions.
Factors such as war, epidemics, and inflation are affecting the laptop market. On the one hand, laptop inventories are currently continuing to climb, as demand in the consumer market turns weak,ED market demand decline, laptop inventories increased to about 7 weeks in the fourth quarter of last year; on the other hand, as the war between Russia and Ukraine worsened, Lenovo, HP, Dell, Apple and others have suspended the supply of laptops to Russia; Acer recently said that Acer strictly comply with international trade regulations, Acer decided to suspend its business in Russia; humanitarian considerations also put Asus in a dilemma, 2021 Asus laptop shipments in Russia accounted for about 11%.
Mainstream brand manufacturers have had to adjust their 2022 laptop shipment plans. JW Insights notes that laptop brands are down by more than 10 percent on average compared to the beginning of the year, and foundry component inventories continue to rise, coupled with a weak market, laptop components are at risk of dropping prices and brand manufacturers are not willing to pull stock. Tibco Consulting (JW Insights) reports that laptop shipments will fall 5.3% year-on-year to 248 million units in 2022 due to high inventories and unresolved logistics issues, inflation and strong dollar issues, and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. The latest Canalys data shows that laptop shipments shrank by just 63.2 million units in Q1 2022, a 6% year-on-year contraction, amid major geopolitical fallout and weak consumer demand.
Along with the lower expectations of the notebook market, the panel prices for notebook computers fell by an extended rate. The market has entered the traditional off-season, and PC brands have revised their shipment forecasts for this year, making the panel price decline more conservative. The average price of notebook panels fell by 7-10%, 11.6-inch ChromeBook panel prices fell by more than 16% in a single quarter. early April panel quotes for notebooks are still weak.
In the face of the continued downward trend of the notebook market, panel makers have also had to lower their expectations for panels for notebooks in 2022. Set Micro Consulting (JW Insights) reports that notebook computer panel shipments are expected to be around 270 million units in 2022, down about 5% from 2021. If panel makers do not control panel production, notebook panels will be oversupplied in the second quarter. Tibco Consulting (JW Insights) also expects that the second quarter IT panel price decline may further expand.
In this round of notebook computer panel price decline, the market pattern of IT panel makers may be readjusted. Currently, Chinese Taiwan panel makers and Korean panel makers still occupy a larger share of the IT panel market, and mainland Chinese panel makers Jingdongparty, TCL Huaxing, Huike, etc. in order to seize a larger market share of IT panels, are vigorously entering the IT panel, TCL Huaxing Guangzhou 8.6 generation line main attack IT panel, Huike with 8 generation line cutting IT panel, even focus on small and medium size of Tianma also plans to invest in the construction of 8.6 generation line, accelerate the layout of the IT panel market. Tibco Consulting (JW Insights) believes that after the many 8.6 generation lines in mainland China are put into operation, the notebook computer panel market is likely to usher in a wave of price war, squeezing China Taiwan's 6 generation line notebook computer panel market share, when the Chinese mainland panel manufacturers will be in TV panels, [mobile]() panels, IT panels, and other areas of all-round dominate the global market. In order to cope with the fierce market competition, Korean panel makers accelerated to OLED field, China Taiwan panel makers are shifting their focus to the scenario-based commercial display market, trying to avoid head-to-head competition with mainland Chinese panel makers to establish their own technology, business ecology and other barriers.
JW Insights (JW Insights) believes that the laptop market is expected to be unpromising in 2022, falling back compared to 2021, but still showing significant growth compared to 2019 before the epidemic, thus showing that the epidemic has made the combination of online and offline hybrid office and teaching the norm, and people's demand for laptops has increased significantly, making 2020 the laptop market size to remain above 200 million units after that. The laptop market may also fluctuate over the next two to three years, but will all hover between 200 million and 260 million units.